After the methanol market shock will become the main theme

On January 8, a leading newspaper analyzed and forecasted the methanol market trend for spring, suggesting that the downward cycle since November last year was nearing its bottom. It predicted that the market would soon stabilize and begin to rebound. However, it also noted that methanol is unlikely to lead a sharp price surge compared to dimethyl ether (DME) in the short term. Instead, the market is expected to gradually stabilize rather than experience a sudden upward movement. This week’s market performance has largely confirmed the newspaper's prediction. Driven by the previous DME market rally, most domestic methanol producers raised their ex-factory prices last week. In particular, methanol prices in Shandong, Hebei, Henan, and Shanxi saw widespread increases, with many companies adjusting prices online. Although international methanol prices continued to decline, the domestic market showed an overall recovery. In North China, the market maintained its upward trend after a rebound the previous week, with prices rising to between RMB 2,450 and 2,800 per ton. Prices increased by RMB 150 at both ends, following a RMB 100 rise from the prior week. Other regions also followed suit, with East China prices reaching RMB 3,100–3,300, up RMB 100 at the low end. Central China saw prices rise by RMB 150 on both ends, reaching RMB 2,600–2,850. Meanwhile, South China and Northeast China markets remained relatively stable. The Southwest and Northwest regions, however, still faced weaker conditions, with the Southwest seeing a RMB 100 drop and the Northwest experiencing a RMB 50 decrease at the high end. A comprehensive analysis of the current methanol market reveals that multiple factors are balancing each other out. International crude oil prices have been gradually declining, narrowing the gap between external and domestic prices. Downstream demand for methanol, such as formaldehyde and acetic acid, remains seasonal and lacks strong growth potential. Additionally, new methanol projects have started operating, and the recent DME shortage has eased, which has limited the upward momentum of methanol prices. Despite the sharp drop in DME prices, methanol prices remain slightly higher than before the New Year holiday. Currently, DME production rates are high, and methanol demand from downstream sectors has increased. Moreover, after six weeks of falling prices, many downstream companies have low raw material inventories. With the Spring Festival delivery period approaching, methanol prices were supported by the psychological impact of buyers rushing to stock up, leading to a tighter market. At the same time, formaldehyde prices have also risen. Therefore, it is expected that the domestic methanol market will not see major fluctuations or deep declines in the near future. Instead, the market is likely to enter a phase of consolidation and stabilization, with moderate price movements becoming the norm.

Wine Cup

Xuzhou D.C. International Trading Co., Ltd. , https://www.tfgyspackaging.com