Prediction 2018: SUV market continues to be bullish The car market is still worth investing


In recent days, some domestic car companies have announced their sales performance in 2017, which can be described as a few happy moments. In the market environment where the domestic auto market has gradually entered into slow growth (expected to grow at a rate of 3.5%), car companies that have achieved growth performance will naturally be able to hold a slap in their hands, and there is no way to care about the downbeat car industry talks. However, by 2018, it is better to look at future market trends through 2017 sales figures and hope for the future.

2018车市预测,SUV销量,轿车销量

Judging from the several car companies that have announced sales in 2017, except for Geely Automobile, the rest of the growth has been slower or declined, which is generally in line with the market trend. From the perspective of the sales structure of each car company, the three major joint venture brand giants are mainly based on the car market, and their sales ratio is much higher than that of SUVs and MPVs; Chinese brands are different, although Geely’s car sales account for almost SUVs. The sales volume is flat and unique among Chinese brands, but considering that Geely Automobile only recently launched new SUVs (Bo Yue, Dorsett GS, etc.) only in the past two years, it still fits the commonality of SUVs' contribution to Chinese brands. So what will happen in 2018?

Market and supply level: In 2018, domestic SUV market sales will continue to rise, but the car market is still worth the investment.

In the past 2017, the total sales volume of the domestic car market is expected to be approximately 12 million vehicles, with more than 240 models being sold. The average monthly sales volume of a single model is approximately 3,935 units; the total sales volume of the domestic SUV market is approximately 10 million during the same period. About 200 models are sold, and the average monthly sales of a single model is about 4,130.

At present, the domestic car market has a complete range of models at all levels, and the market capacity and competition are close to stable. It can be said that the market is almost mature. In contrast, the total sales volume of the domestic SUV market is not as good as that of the sedan market, and it still has a relatively high growth rate (about 15%); the number of models is small, and the average monthly sales of a single vehicle model are relatively high, and the competition is insufficient. Therefore, if we look at the development of the car market, the domestic SUV market should still have high growth potential.

2018车市预测,SUV销量,轿车销量

According to the car industry talks, some domestic car companies (including joint ventures) are equally optimistic about the SUV market, and have a corresponding new car plan. In fact, judging from the currently known car companies' new car plans, this judgment can also be confirmed. For example, FAW-Volkswagen is expected to launch the first SUV that will hit the Volkswagen standard this year, breaking the situation without SUVs; FAW Toyota will continue to increase the SUV market; Chinese brands continue to strengthen the SUV market is too numerous to mention.

2018车市预测,SUV销量,轿车销量

But even so, the car market is worth the investment. The three major joint-brand giants still achieved a breakthrough of 2 million vehicles per year in 2017 with the sedan market. From the information released so far, the product lines of the three car companies in 2018 are still based on sedan products. At the end of 2017, SAIC-GM Buick listed a number of new cars. It is almost predictable that the three major joint venture brand giants still accounted for the bulk of the sedan in 2018; the side confirmed the opportunities in the car market.

In addition, the success of Geely's car and SUV's product strategy has proved successful. It also proves that Chinese brands should not neglect their efforts in the car market. With the listing of Changan Ruixin CC, SAIC Lufthansa 6, and Roewe i6, Chinese brands with comprehensive strength may usher in a new wave of car upgrades. Of course, the joint venture brand has a firm position in the car market, and the Chinese brands' difficulty in strengthening the car market is naturally greater than that in the SUV market. From the perspective of short-term operations, the Chinese branded car companies are naturally more efficient in focusing on the SUV market; however, from the perspective of the car market capacity and the long-term development of car companies, the car market is undoubtedly worth the continued investment of Chinese brands.

2018车市预测,SUV销量,轿车销量

2018车市预测,SUV销量,轿车销量

Consumer demand: The demand for preference SUVs is still high, and consumers will make rational choices between cars and SUVs.

In the recent period, when some friends around the author are buying cars, many will give priority to SUV models. According to the understanding of the car industry's user demand research, some of the survey samples also have a large proportion of them. Potential consumers will give priority to SUV models. Therefore, it can be basically judged that the demand for SUV preference will still rise in 2018.

2018车市预测,SUV销量,轿车销量

It is true that SUVs, with their relatively tall and mighty body designs, can meet the preference of domestic consumers for beauty, and further cater to the psychological needs of their face; relatively high ground clearances provide better passage; The open driving vision provides some sense of superiority...but consumers must also know that the majority of SUVs are not really passable at present, and with the implementation of urbanization and villages, most road conditions have been Well, most SUVs have a little bit of sexual advantage. It's not really important. In addition, some people think that the space of the SUV is better than that of the sedan. However, with the same model, the driving space of the sedan is not weaker than that of the SUV, and the trunk space of the sedan is also large. Even more noteworthy is that the current SUV is given a too high premium; in terms of colloquialism, if the same compact car, the price of the same, quite a brand compact SUV is higher than the compact car. At the same time, the comfort and driving sensation of cars are better than those of SUVs. As for safety, if they are not rear-end collisions, the driving stability of cars is often better than that of SUVs.

2018车市预测,SUV销量,轿车销量

Car industry Zatan believes that when SUV's "following" consumption fades and demand returns to rationality, the demand for SUVs and cars should move toward balance; or new product models that take into account demand will appear.

As mentioned above, the growth rate of the domestic auto market has slowed down, and the market will carry out structural changes with a high probability, or product quality upgrades, function upgrades, or market segmentation. In general, the SUV market will continue to rise in 2018, and the market will have a high probability of flattening the car market.



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