Regional air quality control technology: quantitative control haze "scalpel"

At the Twelfth Symposium on Urban Air Quality Management in China hosted by the MEP and the Asia Clean Air Center, both experts at home and abroad mentioned precise haze control and the establishment of a scientific decision-making system. How do i do this?

He Kebin, a faculty member of Tsinghua University's environmental faculty, and the Clean Air Asia Center jointly developed training materials on "Regional Air Quality Dynamic Control Technology Platform and Typical Application Cases", introduced the dynamic regulation and control technology of regional air quality in detail, unveiled the quantification and refinement of air pollution control The secret of

streamline

Atmospheric treatment of new requirements

Requirement 1: Fine pollution source analysis

PM2.5 and ozone are problems with many causes. There is a limited source of pollution that can be ameliorated by a source abatement technology, but air pollution in a region comes from a variety of sources. Therefore, the need to refine the source of pollution analysis.

At present, local governance often goes into two misunderstandings: first, how many boilers have been rebuilt, and how many boilers have been disposed of, but their actual emission reduction effects are not clear enough; Second, there is a lack of quantitative analysis on the improvement of these regional pollution concentrations . In the end, although the intensity of governance was not small, the effect was even, and even the PM2.5 concentration dropped, the ozone concentration went up.

Requirement 2: Major incident response and rapid assessment

Regular emergency work - APEC meeting, parade as the representative of large-scale activities of air quality assurance work;

Quantitative emergency work - how to quickly assess and respond to heavily polluted weather.

Requirement 3: Establishment of phased control plan

For example, the goal of "atmospheric ten" is formulated in a five-year cycle. However, the realization of this goal needs to be refined to each year, quarterly and continuously adjusted according to the work progress.

Requirement 4: medium and long term planning

The Atmosphere Ten sets the target line for each city's air quality in 2017. The 13th Five-Year Plan also includes the binding targets for the goal of improving ambient air quality.

Based on the above goals, refinement has become a new trend of pollution control. So, the dynamic adjustment of regional air quality control technology is how to achieve it?

Route 1: Pre-assessment

Quantitative simulation to ensure compliance

Pollution control, the implementation of the policy to spend huge costs. Therefore, the pre-assessment of the improvement effect has become a real need.

In the pre-assessment of the emission reduction effect of "Atmospheric 10" in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the team of Tsinghua University made the following work by using the regional air quality dynamic regulation and control platform -

1, To determine the main sources of pollution in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, of which 54% of PM2.5 emissions from industrial processes were discharged; and the precursors to secondary PM2.5 pollution are mainly SO2, NOx, VOC and NH3.

For example, it is found that the emission reduction of energy structure (39.5%) contributes the most to SO2 emission reduction and the power plant desulfurization takes the second place (22.8%); and the power plant NOx removal to NOx The largest contribution was made to emission reduction (46.3%), followed by vehicle emission reduction (19.6%).

The picture shows the contribution of various emission reduction measures to SO2 emission reduction

3. Based on the emission scenarios under the 2012 Emission Inventory and the "Emission Ten" scenario under the "Atmosphere 10" implementation, the multi-scale air quality model CMAQ was used to simulate the fine particulate pollution in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region under the two emission scenarios respectively. The model shows that the average annual PM2.5 concentrations in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei Province are 25.6%, 18.7% and 14.7%, respectively. There is a risk that the target of "Atmospheric 10" could not be achieved.

4, Find out the reason, analyze the contribution of the main pollutant components to the decrease of PM2.5 concentration, and find that the existing control effect on SO2 is obvious, control on NOx and primary PM2.5 is weak, and VOC and NH3 The weakest control. Therefore, Tianjin and Hebei should pay particular attention to the control of PM2.5 emissions and the refinement of measures for the civil sector and VOC and NH3.

Path 2: program development

Scientific governance haze, precision pollution control

Regional air quality dynamic control technology can assist cities to develop an in-depth governance program, strengthen governance based on pre-assessment and ensure that policies are translated into results. Take Hebei Province as an example. After the pre-assessment, in order to ensure the completion of the "Atmosphere 10" goal, an in-depth governance plan has been formulated:

1. Estimate the emission reductions needed to achieve the target of concentration reduction and the expected effect of the existing emission reduction measures using the model.

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