Coke: Don't burn yourself

From 2003 to 2005, the domestic coke market experienced a rollercoaster ride, marked by sharp fluctuations and extreme volatility. Many companies initially benefited from the booming market, but soon faced the harsh reality of falling prices, blocked exports, and declining efficiency. The industry now needs to take a step back from the frenzy, as unchecked expansion could lead to self-destruction. Excessive capacity and a dramatic drop in prices became a major issue during this period. According to Jin Qiang, chairman of the China Coking Industry Association, global steel production, especially in China, surged, boosting coke demand. In 2004, China's apparent coke consumption reached 191.16 million tons, rising to 230.04 million tons in 2005—a 20.54% increase. Meanwhile, coke production also rose significantly, from 260.18 million tons in 2004 to 243 million tons in 2005. Despite the rapid growth in production, the market was tight due to strong export demand and rising steel smelting needs. Prices soared from around 300–400 yuan per ton to as high as 1,300–1,400 yuan. This led to a surge in small-scale and outdated coke plants, with many towns having dozens of facilities producing over 200,000 tons annually. However, this boom was short-lived. By mid-2004, the market turned. Domestic production expanded rapidly, while international demand slowed. Supply exceeded demand, and prices plummeted, nearly reaching cost levels. With rising coal and transportation costs, coking companies found their profit margins squeezed. Most were forced into losses, and the situation worsened. According to recent data, another 60.3 million tons of coke capacity will be added in the next three years. Experts argue that only through the elimination of outdated facilities, stricter environmental controls, and better regulation of investments can the oversupply problem be addressed. Internationally, demand for coke dropped after 2005 as steel output fell globally. China’s export volume decreased, and average prices fell sharply. In 2005, China exported 12.76 million tons at an average of $183.37 per ton, down from $263.05 in 2004. This trend shows that both domestic and international markets are struggling. Moreover, the global coke market is shifting. While some countries increased production due to past shortages, the current surplus is reducing reliance on Chinese coke. Additionally, new policies have capped export quotas, meaning competition will intensify. Domestically, the industry faces other challenges. There are over 1,400 coke companies, with an average capacity of just 200,000 tons per year. Small-scale operations often lack proper pollution control, leading to severe environmental issues. Air quality in coke regions frequently exceeds national standards, with dangerous levels of benzopyrene, a known carcinogen, posing serious health risks. Coke production also requires large amounts of coking coal, and inefficient methods result in significant waste. For example, in Shanxi Province alone, annual emissions include 8 billion cubic meters of gas and 100 tons of coal tar, causing billions in economic losses. The coking industry is at a critical crossroads. The path forward must balance economic growth with environmental responsibility. While government guidance is essential, long-term success depends on the decisions made by individual companies. The time has come for the industry to rethink its strategies and move toward sustainable development.

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