On April 1 of this year, the concurrent management of the average fuel consumption of passenger vehicles and new energy vehicle integration was formally implemented. According to the policy requirements, the proportion of new energy vehicles in 2019 and 2020 will reach 10% and 12%, respectively. The introduction of this policy has a major impact on the Chinese auto industry and even the world's auto structure. Because China is the world's largest automaker and the largest automotive sales market, it can be described as "a move, a hundred shake." Thanks to the strong support of national policies, the development of new energy vehicles in China, especially electric vehicles, is the fastest in the world and far ahead. Some multinational companies, in order to maintain the status of the Chinese automobile market, have begun to increase their efforts in new energy vehicles, or put aside their cooperation with domestic car companies in the field of new energy vehicles. Before Jianghuai and Volkswagen set up JAC Volkswagen, a joint venture between Zotye and Ford established Zotye Ford. In 2018, another news broke that the Great Wall and BMW “successfully†succeeded. More other car companies have barely had time to prepare for it. The speed of development of new energy vehicles, especially electric vehicles, has surpassed everyone's expectations. Looking at the world, the progress of national policies is also very large. Some countries have even announced that they will stop selling traditional cars. In the face of such rapid changes, companies must survive by rapidly developing new energy vehicles, mainly electric vehicles. Because simply engaging in traditional cars can no longer meet the country's fuel consumption requirements. Electric vehicles are theoretically zero-emissions, which can lower the fuel consumption of traditional vehicles and lower the average fuel consumption of vehicles. Of course, the joint venture between a Chinese brand and a multinational car company is not just a "lossy one." From a technical point of view, compared with multinational companies in the field of new energy vehicles, although the gap is small, there is still a certain gap, mainly reflected in the "three powers," namely, batteries, motors, and electronic control. Regarding batteries, we are more advanced, but the development of electronic controls and motors is related to the overall industrial development. Therefore, we also have the advantage of cooperation with foreign countries, and we can also learn some of their technologies. From the current perspective, the trend of developing new energy vehicles is irreversible, but new energy vehicles do have some problems and are fatal. The first is the cost price. Second, the types and types of models are relatively small and cannot meet the diverse needs of consumers. Basically, the models are mainly small cars. How can a larger car be electric? These need to be explored. In addition, with the gradual decline in the subsidy policy, the promotion of new energy vehicles can really play only a limited purchase. Therefore, the most important thing for the next step is to promote cost reduction and not rely on policy subsidies. To fully realize the electrification, the most important thing is to achieve a full-scale marketization of electric vehicles and not rely on state subsidies to live. Now that some Chinese brands have announced that they want to cancel or ban the sale of fuel vehicles, and there is a timetable, it seems that they are ready to fully electrify. However, what is the status of full-scale electrification? Its impact on the overall national economy as a whole is still unpredictable. In 2017, the annual sales volume of traditional Chinese automobiles has approached 30 million, and its actual production capacity will be even higher. The upstream and downstream sides of the industrial chain will also be even broader. Just think, to be fully electrified, all these auto companies will stop production of traditional fuel vehicles. The impact on GDP, industrial layout, and employment will be enormous. Furthermore, the technical problems of the electric vehicle itself have not been completely resolved, including batteries, including endurance, and they need to continue to improve. So, what is the future of full-scale electrification? We are still trying to move forward, there is no model, and there is no clear prospect. The so-called feeling of crossing the river by stones, I am afraid we have to do for some time, can not say that the wind is the rain.
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